By Prabhudatta Mishra
Manufacturing of cotton and groundnut within the present kharif season is ready to drop as dry climate within the first three months of the June-September monsoon season has dragged down sowing of those crops in Gujarat, the biggest producing state, whereas decrease acreages in different states has dimmed the possibilities of an general restoration.
Nevertheless, it won’t be as dangerous as in kharif 2018-19, when output of cotton and groundnut had declined 15% and 29%, respectively, on-year, analysts mentioned.
Assuming the present pan-India groundnut sowing space at about 49 lakh hectare as ultimate acreage and common yield of final season’s 1.7 tonne/hectare, the manufacturing could also be about 83.3 lakh tonne on this kharif, 3% down from earlier season. Of 102.1 lakh tonne of groundnut produced in 2020-21 crop yr (July-June), the kharif crop had about 84% share whereas the remaining harvest was from rabi season.
Cotton manufacturing can also fall by 9% to 322.5 lakh bales (one bale weighs 170 kg) on foundation of 119.5 lakh hectare acreage and a pair of.7 bales/hectare yield. The goal for this yr is 370 lakh bales. The Union agriculture ministry is more likely to launch the primary advance estimate of kharif crops output for 2021-22 within the third week of this month.
Aside from Gujarat, groundnut acreage in different main producers like Andhra Pradesh, Rajasthan and Karnataka has additionally dropped from last-year’s space. Equally, sowing space beneath cotton can also be down (y-o-y) in Maharashtra, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Karnataka and Haryana.
The acreage of cotton in Gujarat has declined 1.3% to 22.5 lakh hectare and that of groundnut by 7.7% to 19.1 lakh hectare as on September 10 from their year-ago ranges, official knowledge of Gujarat present. Kharif sowing is nearly over and there may be little probability of enchancment as per knowledge obtained from all districts up to now few weeks, based on an official of the state authorities.
The rainfall deficit in Gujarat was 50% throughout June-August and every month additionally had beneath regular precipitation. Some enhancements had been seen in first week of September which had 98% above regular rains. The irrigated space beneath groundnut is just 12% and for cotton 59% within the state.
“The manufacturing will certainly be decrease as yield could also be affected because of poor rainfall constantly for 3 months. Nevertheless, a attainable bigger harm has been contained with the current rains,” an agriculture scientist mentioned, requesting anonymity as he didn’t need to be seen difficult the state authorities’s manufacturing estimates.
Final month, Gujarat launched its crop forecast for the state during which groundnut manufacturing was pegged marginally greater (0.2%) from earlier yr’s 39.86 lakh tonne whereas cotton output seen at 11% greater from earlier yr’s 72.7 lakh bales (one bale weighs 170 kg). However, oilseeds merchants estimate groundnut manufacturing to be about 3% decrease within the state.
“The cottonseed costs are very excessive even because the crop goes to reach in lower than a month. This can be both because of a sturdy demand or expectation of a decline in crop,” mentioned Bavish Patel, a dealer of Rajkot. There was a shift from groundnut to soyabean after the latter’s costs exponentially elevated this yr, Patel mentioned.
Soyabean costs in lots of locations in Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra have crossed Rs 10,000/quintal this yr, which is a file. This compares with all India common of Rs 3,904/quintal, marginally above minimal help worth (MSP) of Rs 3,880, throughout key harvesting interval October-December 2020.
“Amid an anticipated decrease than regular soyabean crop output for third consecutive yr, the autumn in groundnut manufacturing can be a brief setback for the federal government’s oilseed mission. There could also be a number of measures together with import responsibility reduce and inventory holding limits to maintain home costs from additional enhance,” mentioned a former agriculture commissioner. If cotton costs go up because of fall in manufacturing, it might assist enhance sowing space subsequent yr and encourage paddy farmers for diversification, he added.