If you are living in Goa, Delhi, Chandigarh, or Haryana, you may end up losing up to nearly Rs 1 lakh this year due to the disruptions caused by the coronavirus pandemic. The per capita loss for all India is around Rs 27,000 with states like Tamil Nadu, Gujarat, Telangana, Delhi, Haryana, Goa, etc, exhibiting loss of more than Rs 40,000 per person in FY21, said the SBI research report. The state-wise analysis has also shown that the top 10 states accounted for 73.8 per cent of total GDP loss with Maharashtra contributing 14.2 per cent of total loss followed by Tamil Nadu (9.2 per cent) and Uttar Pradesh (8.2 per cent).
While the economic downturn due to early effects of the pandemic was already strong enough to shatter the Indian economy, the rising number of cases and unavailability of clear projection of the peak have further shot up the economic woes. Our earlier GDP estimate at -6.8 per cent has been significantly overshot in FY21, the report added. It has suggested that the total SGDP loss due to COVID-19 is at 16.8 per cent of GSDP.
Coronavirus is significantly moving towards India’s rural areas as total new cases have risen to 54 per cent in August. While the urban counterpart was struggling through the disruptions in business and industries and the agriculture sector from the hinterland was believed to be leading the country’s economic growth, now new worry has surrounded India’s overall economic landscape. Adding to the woes, state-wise additional mortality in addition to Covid-related deaths due to a 10 per cent decline in SGDP showed a worrisome picture and indicated that mortality rates may increase by 0.5-3.5 per cent additionally due to unplanned exit from lockdowns and unplanned entry into fresh lockdowns across states.
Meanwhile,.the change in consumption habits during the lockdown is the need of the hour as services are not getting consumed. Based on SBI-computed Covid CPI, the actual headline inflation is much higher than the imputed inflation. The SBI research has estimated that July CPI could be higher than 7.5 per cent, instead of 6.9 per cent computed earlier.