By NS Ramaswamy
At a time when the Second Covid wave is spreading throughout the nation, the excellent news is that each the IMD and personal climate forecaster Skymet have predicted that India is prone to have a standard monsoon once more this 12 months. The South West monsoon is essential for India. It delivers 70% of India’s rainfall and most Agricultural actions rely upon it. Additional, the Agriculture sector accounts for about 18% of India’s GDP and employs greater than half of the nation’s 1.39 billion inhabitants.
Final 12 months, Agriculture was the one sector that supported the Indian economic system whereas it recorded a stoop in manufacturing and different sectors, which have been badly hit, primarily resulting from a nationwide lockdown. Equally, we count on that this 12 months, regular rains will assist assist an financial restoration, which is dealing with new dangers from resurgence in Covid circumstances, throughout the second wave of the pandemic.
Agricultural commodity costs recovered and outperformed in FY 2020-2021 supported by elements:
– World stimulus packages, weaker greenback and hostile climate patterns
– Decrease rates of interest by international central banks
The desk above means that NCDEX/MCX Agri commodity costs outperformed primarily supported by higher fiscal coverage measures taken by international central banks and the RBI.
A lot of the Agricultural commodity costs of Kharif (Count on Cotton) & Rabi Crops costs cooled down primarily resulting from South west monsoon (June to Sept) predicted by IMD to be ‘Regular’
Transferring ahead, we count on Rabi commodity costs to begin the following leg of the rally after the height arrivals seasons. The rally will probably be primarily supported by the pageant season, which lasts all by way of August to December.
Is the Agri Commodity worth rally set to proceed within the coming days/months?
– Extra Rainfall in Central Area; a Hat-trick efficiency of commodity costs anticipated: In line with the IMD forecast, extra rainfall over 106% is probably going in Central India area which can influence the Kharif crops Cotton, Soybean and Sugar. This might injury or decrease the crop manufacturing and the commodity costs may head northward.
– Larger crude oil costs might assist the Oil seeds complicated, Guar complicated and Sugar costs: Over the previous one month interval, Brent Crude Oil Costs have been buying and selling above USD 70/barrel. Principally, Oilseed complicated, Guar complicated, and Sugar worth have a optimistic correlation with costs. Any additional improve in Crude oil worth will gas these commodity costs to north.
– Larger MSP worth will improve agri-prices: Cupboard Committee on Financial Affairs (CCEA) lately permitted a better minimal assist worth (MSP) for all mandated kharif crops for advertising and marketing season 2021-22. That is prone to end in greater agri-commodity costs.
– Speculative “internet lengthy” in agricultural commodities is at historic highs.
– The second lockdown might disrupt the provision chain of Agri commodities and demand from trade: Attributable to APMC Markets and Mandi’s remaining closed resulting from lockdown, it’s prone to create provide chain disruptions leading to a rise in demand for important commodities like Rice, Edible oil & Spices complicated (viz, Pepper & Turmeric) ; Demand from the cotton textile trade can be going to be impacted. We count on the economic utilization of commodities like maize & oil cake for poultry farming to go decrease.
– Globally, dry climate situations in Brazil and Argentina are supportive for a worth rise with additionally a robust post-covid demand from China.
– On the flip facet, As per Reuters, Fed to announce QE taper in Aug or Sept on rising inflation considerations that would stress the worldwide commodities comparable to Cotton, Soybean and Sugar costs on the draw back. Internally, peak arrival season for Rabi Crops and a optimistic south west monsoon forecast by IMD and Sky met are worth dampeners.
Monsoon Distribution to provide Worth Route – Lastly, the monsoon distribution of the surplus/decrease or regular rainfall would give the response to the Agri commodities costs. Agri-commodity worth are additionally impacted by different elements, comparable to actions in oil costs and the Rupee change charge, import/export duties, and so forth. Relying on how these elements transfer, they might exert an upward or downward stress on agri-commodity costs.
(NS Ramaswamy is Head of Commodities, Ventura Securities. Views expressed are the writer’s personal.)